The Hidden Potential of Green Voters in Red States
The Environmental Voter Project (EVP) today released new research highlighting the latent political power of environmental voters in 12 traditionally purple and red states – AK, AZ, FL, GA, IA, KS, LA, NE, NV, NC, PA, and TX. The report shows that even small increases in turnout of environmental voters could impact future environmental policy and, in more purple states, the results of the next presidential election.
Some of the key state takeaways from the report include:
- In Alaska, EVP identified 34,573 environment-first registered voters in Alaska who did not vote in the 2020 presidential election. This group equals 9.6% of all ballots cast in Alaska’s 2020 presidential contest, almost surpassing Donald Trump’s 36,173-vote margin of victory in 2020.
- In Texas, EVP identified 721,968 Non-Voting Environmentalists, far beyond Donald Trump’s 631,221-vote margin of victory in Texas in 2020.
- In Louisiana — a state where fewer than 2.2 million people cast ballots in 2020 — EVP identified 144,433 Non-Voting Environmentalists.
- In the more purple states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, EVP has identified a stunning 792,962 Non-Voting Environmentalists. These were three of the closest four states in the 2020 presidential election — with Joe Biden narrowly winning the states by a combined total of just 55,832 votes.
The report also highlights who these voters are:
- Overwhelmingly young. In the 12 states studied, 18-34 year olds make up anywhere from 64.7% (in NE) to 91.5% (in TX) of the population of environmentalists who did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.
- Disproportionately African-American and AAPI. Weighting each state evenly, African-Americans make up 11.5% of registered voters in these 12 states, but they are 21.3% of all Non-Voting Environmentalists. Similarly, AAPI voters make up 2.6% of these states’ registered voters, but they are 4.9% of all Non-Voting Environmentalists.
- Disproportionately Hispanic in Arizona and Texas, but not Florida. In Arizona and Texas the population of NVEs skews more Hispanic than the overall electorate. However, in Florida, low propensity environmental voters are now evenly represented when comparing Non-Voting Environmentalists to the overall electorate.
- Native Americans in Alaska and Arizona. Native Americans make up a 7.0% of Non-Voting Environmentalists in Arizona and 12.3% in Alaska.